Who is Most Likely to Win 2025 General Election?

Who do you think is the most popular politician in Belize? The Belize Poll 2024 sheds light on this question, drawing insights from a survey of 968 Belizean voters. This comprehensive poll delves into the nation’s political landscape, gauging residents’ satisfaction with life in Belize, their economic stability, and their views on corruption. Conducted by Viking Strategies between June 17 and August 6, 2024, this survey continues a tradition of political analysis in Belize that date back to 2010. News Five takes an in-depth look at the detailed seventy-eight-page findings. Here is that report.

 

Paul Lopez, Reporting

The Belize Poll 2024 is a survey conducted by Viking Strategies that provides insight into Belize’s current state and citizens perspective. This year’s polls provide insight from two hundred random registered voters into the nation’s political landscape, life in Belize, the economic landscape, crime and governance. According to the results of the 2024 poll, crime remains a top concern for Belizeans. According to the poll, over thirty-three percent of Belizeans cited crime, specifically gang violence, as their primary issue. Three months ago, the Government of Belize instituted a State of Emergency to address this very issue.

 

Chester Williams, Commissioner of Police

“We have to do more; the public has to do more to work with us and I commented that the police department will continue to build relationships with the public to continue to see how together we can address the scourge of crime.”

 

The survey also cites declining economic confidence and persistent corruption as challenges Belizeans are facing. On the other hand, the current PUP administration has been praised by sixty-eight percent of the respondents for infrastructural improvements.

 

Prime Minister John Briceño (File: March 4^th, 2024)

“I remember our ministers in Cabinet were excited and anxious. They said we need to get work going immediately. I said, we can’t spend what we don’t have. So, we had to make sure we could fix the economy, make sure we can fix the collection of revenues and also see where we can get support.”

 

As for the economic situation in Belize, most of the respondents indicated that they have enough money to buy the necessities and extras to purchase other items, but they cannot afford major purchases like a car. Five years ago, these respondents were stating the opposite, which is that they had money to purchase food, but they were struggling to pay their utility bills. In his 2024 State of the Nation address, Prime Minister John Briceño reported a significant increase in GDP growth for Belize.

 

Prime Minister John Briceño (File: Sept 17^th, 2024 )

“Gross domestic production as of the end of 2023 has now surpassed six billion dollars, the highest level in the country’s history and in the first quarter of this year by another ten percent. And the condition for continued expansion is compelling.”

 

As for the public’s view on corruption in government, thirty percent of the respondents said that corruption is widespread, while the majority indicated that corruption is somewhat present.  Notably, ahead of the 2020 general election, PM Briceño spoke as the then opposition leader about curbing corruption.

 

Prime Minister John Briceño (File: Oct 6^th, 2020)

“From within ourselves as a government, as leaders in government that we will do everything possible to curb corruption as best as we can. What I can tell you is that we cannot continue to run the government as it has been done under the U.D.P. We cannot continue plundering the treasury.”

 

The Belize Poll 2024 also set out to rank Belize’s politicians from the two major political parties, based on their favorability and popularity. In the faceoff between Prime Minister John Briceño and the Leader of the Opposition Moses “Shyne” Barrow, the poll reveals that both party leaders are well known. But PM Briceño is most favored among those polled. PM Briceno was also ranked as the most known politician in the country, though his favorability ranking stands at sixth out of thirty-six. Barrow came in as the second most known politician in Belize. His favorability ranking is, however, extremely poor, at thirty fourth out of thirty-six.

 

According to the poll, Cordel Hyde, the Area Representative for Lake Independence, took the top spot as most favored politician in Belize, followed by Kevin Bernard in second place, and Kareem Musa in third place. Tracy Panton stands at fourth place as the only U.D.P. politician in the top ten most favorable politician list. According to the poll, John Saldivar leads the list of least favorable politicians. He is closely followed by Gilroy Usher, the Area Representative for Port Loyola, and Michael Peyrefitte in third place. And if you are wondering where Patrick Faber stands in all of it, he is ranked as the third most known politician. He is sixth out of thirty-six on the favorability ranking. Looking at voters’ intentions for the 2025 general election, most respondents said that they might vote for the P.U.P.  The second highest number of respondents indicated that they would vote for the P.U.P. The poll also measured voters’ intentions where the U.D.P. is concerned.  The 2024 Belize Poll predicts a close victory for the People’s United Party in the upcoming election, with forty-one percent of the total ballots that will be cast.  Will these figures withstand the test of time? It is anyone’s guess. Reporting for News Five, I am Paul Lopez.