TS Sara on Projected Path Towards Belize

This afternoon, Tropical Storm Sara formed off the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. According to the National Emergency Management Organization’s three p.m. advisory, Sara was located three hundred and thirty miles east-southeast of Belize City, moving west at ten miles per hour. The storm is expected to continue its westward path at a slower pace over the next two days. Earlier today, during a NEMO press conference, Sara was projected to make landfall north of Belize, which was the center of the cone of probability at that time. However, this afternoon’s update shows the center of the cone has shifted further south, closer to Placencia. This change highlights the inherent uncertainty in these projections. Here’s what Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon had to say this morning.

 

Via Zoom: Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist

“This is the global forecast system, better known as the American model. Initialized at midnight local time, and let us move forward int time. You can see the low pressure center around here as we have indicated near the north east coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. If we forward in time and go six a.m. tomorrow, you see the low here, north of Honduras. Let us move forward another twenty-four hours, you have the low remaining there but becoming much more disorganized. This is because of land interaction. Because the system is moving so close to Honduras this model is suggesting that is going to weaken. These lines are called isobars or lines of equal pressure. The closer you see these together the stronger the system. What you have noticed in the last twenty-four hours, these lines have moved further apart indicating that the system is weakening because of land interaction. Interestingly I want you to focus on Belize, you can see that even though it is a weaker system, there are bands of thunderstorms affecting the country. These colors of deep blue towards purple are indicating heavy rainfall activity in southern Belize. Let me advance to twenty-four hours. This will be Sunday morning, centered roughly here off the coast of Belize, rainfall again impacting the country. I move forward again and you can see the low impacting the land and moving across the land. The rains decreasing thereafter. This is one interpretation. One model’s idea of what could happen. Models are not gospel truth. They have inaccuracies. They have assumptions. So it is important we use these with caution.”