TS Rafael Expected to Strengthen into a Hurricane

Tropical Storm Rafael, the 17th named storm of this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, has developed in the Caribbean and is forecasted to become a hurricane by Tuesday, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC). This would make Rafael the 11th hurricane of the season, which officially lasts until November 30.

Initially classified as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18, Rafael formed on Sunday and strengthened into a tropical storm by Monday afternoon. As of 4 p.m. ET, Rafael was located about 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, with sustained winds of 45 mph, moving north at 9 mph.

The NHC issued a tropical storm watch on Monday afternoon for the lower and middle Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas, while a hurricane warning has been put in place for the Cayman Islands. Jamaica remains under a tropical storm warning, and Cuba has issued a hurricane watch for select provinces.

Forecasts indicate that Rafael will pass near Jamaica late on Monday, approach or pass over the Cayman Islands by late Tuesday—potentially reaching hurricane strength—before moving towards Cuba on Wednesday. Meteorologists expect 3 to 6 inches of rainfall across the western Caribbean, with localised totals reaching up to 9 inches in Jamaica. The heaviest rainfall and potential for minor coastal flooding are expected in Jamaica on Monday evening, while storm surges in the Cayman Islands could reach up to 3 feet on Tuesday. Flooding and mudslides are possible in Jamaica and Cuba.

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