PUP Maintains Dominance as UDP Faces Challenges Ahead of 2025 Polls

The political landscape of Belize is currently characterised by a strong dominance of the People’s United Party (PUP), with various constituencies reflecting a significant shift in voter preferences. This is what a recently published poll by Viking Strategies LLC, which provides clients worldwide with customised sovereign political risk and public affairs solutions, shows.

The findings point out that traditionally UDP strongholds like Caribbean Shores and Pickstock have turned in favour of the PUP, highlighting a potential seismic change in political allegiances. The PUP’s grip is further solidified by overwhelming support in constituencies such as Lake Independence, where they captured an impressive 89.4% of the vote in 2020. Meanwhile, the UDP’s prospects appear bleak, especially in urban areas where the margins have narrowed. However, the analysis indicates that several competitive toss-up seats, like Albert and Belize Rural North, remain within reach for the UDP, contingent upon improvements in their national polling. As the political dynamics evolve, the upcoming elections could present pivotal opportunities for both parties.

Key Findings:

Constituency Analysis Overview

The analysis of various constituencies reveals significant political trends in Belize, particularly regarding the stronghold of the People’s United Party (PUP) and the challenges faced by the United Democratic Party (UDP).

Caribbean Shores has seen a notable shift since the UDP held the seat in 2008 and 2012; it flipped to the PUP in 2015 and was retained by them in 2020. Kareem Musa of the PUP won with 58.9% of the vote in 2020, and projections suggest that unless the UDP improves local support significantly, this seat is likely to remain in PUP hands.

In Pickstock, traditionally a UDP stronghold, the PUP candidate Anthony Robert Mahler secured 78.3% of the vote in 2020. Given the UDP’s low chance of reclaiming this seat, it is rated as a safe PUP seat.

Fort George is another long-standing PUP seat, where Henry Charles Usher continued the trend with a comfortable win of 63.8% in 2020, making it a safe PUP seat as well. Albert has been more competitive, with the UDP narrowly winning by 50.2% to 48.6% in 2020, categorised as a toss-up that could shift based on national polling improvements.

Queen’s Square remains a strong UDP area, with the party winning 55.6% of the vote in 2020, suggesting it is a safe seat for the UDP. Similarly, Mesopotamia retains UDP support with 53.1% of the vote, but tighter margins could emerge depending on national polling.

Lake Independence saw overwhelming PUP support with 89.4% of the vote in 2020, firmly categorising it as a safe PUP seat. In Collet, the UDP secured 60.4% of the vote, remaining the favourite here, though challenges could arise with shifts in national polling.

In Port Loyola, the PUP took the seat with 57.7% in 2020, indicating a lean PUP rating, while Freetown has shown increasing margins for the PUP, suggesting it is likely to remain a PUP seat unless significant changes occur.

Belize Rural North has swung between the PUP and UDP, with Marconi Leal of the PUP winning 57.3% in 2020, positioning it as a competitive toss-up for the next election. Conversely, in Belize Rural South, although the UDP has historical strength, the PUP’s Andre Perez narrowly won with 63.0% in 2020, leaning the seat slightly toward the PUP. Belize Rural Central remains competitive, with the PUP’s Dolores Balderamos Garcia winning 57.2% of the vote, making it a toss-up.

In Orange Walk East, the PUP secured 54.3% of the vote, indicating it remains a stronghold for the party. Similarly, Orange Walk North saw the PUP’s Ramon Cervantes win with 56.1%, suggesting that unless the UDP improves its position significantly, this seat is likely to stay with the PUP.

Cayo North has fluctuated between the parties, but the PUP’s Michael Chebat won with 56.1% in 2020, indicating lean PUP status. In contrast, Cayo South has been a consistent PUP seat, with Julius Espat winning 77.4% of the vote in 2020, securing it as a safe PUP seat. In Cayo West, the UDP retained the seat by a narrow margin of 50.6%, making it likely to remain with the UDP. Cayo North East, however, saw the PUP’s Orlando Habet win with 62.9%, leaning the seat toward the PUP. In 2020, Alex Balona of the PUP garnered 55.2% of the voters. This seat is leaning for the

Belmopan has been a competitive battleground, with the PUP winning 60.1% in 2020, suggesting it could go either way in the next election.

In Corozal Bay, the PUP’s Elvia Vega-Samos won with 53.7%, indicating a strong PUP position, while Corozal North remains competitive, with the UDP’s Hugo Patt holding the seat by 56.5%. Corozal South East and Corozal South West are both rated as safe and leaning PUP, respectively, following their wins in 2020.

In Stann Creek West, Rodwell Ferguson has maintained a stronghold for the PUP with 63.3% in 2020, indicating it is a safe seat. Similarly, Dangriga has leaned toward the PUP, with Louis “Dr. Zab” Zabaneh winning 61.7% in 2020, making it likely to remain with the PUP. Both Toledo East and Toledo West have shown consistent PUP support, with victories of 61.1% and 61.3%, respectively, confirming their safe PUP status.

The report finds that the UDP is expected to improve its 2020 performance. It also indicates that a majority of constituencies remain strongholds for the PUP. The probability analysis shows that, although the UDP could narrow margins in several areas, flipping heavily PUP-leaning constituencies is unlikely. However, competitive seats, particularly in urban areas, may shift depending on the dynamics of the upcoming campaign and voter turnout levels. If the UDP can raise its national polling to the 42%-44% range, it might secure 6 to 7 seats, with a few more leaning in its direction. With a closer performance to 44%, the UDP could potentially gain an additional 2 to 3 toss-up seats, totalling between 10 and 13 seats. Conversely, falling below 40% could lead to the UDP retaining only the five seats they currently hold or losing further down to 3 or 4 seats after the elections.