Preliminary Forecast Indicates Extremely  Active Hurricane Season

This year’s Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be the most active ever recorded. Two months ahead of the official start of the season, a team of experts from Colorado State University is forecasting twenty-three named storms, including eleven hurricanes and five major hurricanes. Forecasters are pointing to two main factors that could contribute to an extremely active hurricane season: historically warm ocean temperatures and an impending La Nina. Meteorologists, including those in Belize, hold the university’s forecast in high regard because of the team’s accuracy in their reports. So, today we spoke with Chief Meteorologist, Ronald Gordon, about what Belize can expect this hurricane season.

 

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist, National Meteorological Service

“The forecast from Colorado State University has been issued and they’re predicting a very active, 2023 Atlantic Hurricane season. If my memory serves me right, the figure they issued is for twenty-three named storms, eleven hurricanes, and about five major hurricanes. That forecast is early, preliminary. We are in April and from what we have seen in the past there is some limited skills to those early season forecast. Notwithstanding that CSQ has indicated they have an above normal confidence in this forecast and the reason for this is because the predictors are suggesting it is going to be quite active. In terms of what it means for Belize, whenever you have the odds for a higher than normal season it would indicate that the odds for us are also higher than normal that one could come our way. So we know that the twenty-three named storms that are predicted all of them will not come here or go in one direction, that is a prediction for the entire basin. However, because you know that it is a super active season, the odds of us having one is increased. The figures I have from CSU is that the typical average for us getting a named storm within fifty miles of our coastline, the average is at forty-two percent. This year it is at sixty percent. So there is a higher probability of a storm coming near to us. And one thing I failed to mention in terms of the total numbers is the average. The average for their to fourteen named storms, of those fourteen seven typically becomes hurricanes and three of those become major hurricanes and that is an average over the last thirty years from 1991 to 2020.”