Latest Information from Chief Met. on TD 19
During a press briefing this morning, Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon addressed the potential impacts of Tropical Depression Nineteen, which is currently located in the western Caribbean. According to Gordon, there’s a less than 20% probability of tropical storm-force winds reaching Belize within the next five days, though this could increase as the system intensifies. “That low probability doesn’t rule it out entirely,” he explained, “but for now, based on the forecast, it’s low.”
Gordon shared satellite imagery showing that the system, though disorganised, is becoming better structured, with banding features forming near the Gulf of Honduras. As of the latest update, the system is moving west at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and a central pressure of 1004 mb. It is approximately 391 miles east-southeast of Belize City, with a projected arrival in Belize’s vicinity within 27 hours if it maintained its speed. However, the system is forecast to slow down and potentially stall north of Honduras for 24 to 36 hours before shifting northwest.
Gordon pointed out that while models offer different scenarios, each one predicts significant rainfall for Belize, with some areas potentially seeing more than 10 inches by Monday. While the American model shows the system weakening due to land interaction, the European model suggests it could intensify slightly as it stalls near the Honduran coast.
Gordon noted that residents should stay updated as forecasts may shift. Regardless of its final intensity, the system is likely to bring widespread heavy rainfall, and there’s a significant chance of a tropical storm impacting Belize late Sunday into Monday.
Gordon reminded residents that models have inherent inaccuracies and assumptions, adding, “No forecast can be precise. There is a high probability of landfall in Belize, but focus less on exact timing—rainfall could precede the storm’s arrival.”
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