High Chance of Tropical Storm Sara Forming in Caribbean

The National Meteorological Service is closely monitoring a broad low-pressure system over the central Caribbean Sea, which continues to produce extensive showers and thunderstorms. This system, referred to as Invest 99L, has a high chance of developing into a tropical system within the next 48 hours as it moves slowly westward toward the western Caribbean Sea.

As the Atlantic hurricane season nears its end, this development could lead to the formation of the season’s 18th named storm, future Sara, possibly heading toward the Gulf of Mexico next week. However, the track and intensity remain highly uncertain.

Model forecasts indicate that this system may soon become Tropical Storm Sara once it strengthens into a depression later this week. With favorable conditions, such as low wind shear and record-warm waters for mid-November, it could potentially strengthen to hurricane status in the western Caribbean.

While the track remains complicated and subject to change, the system is expected to move slowly westward toward Central America and the Yucatán Peninsula through early next week. This slow movement could result in heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding or mudslides in the region.

Forecast models show that a cold front moving across the U.S. might influence its path, potentially pulling it northward toward the Yucatán, the southern Gulf of Mexico, or western Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. There is a possibility that this cold front could then accelerate its movement eastward, possibly affecting Florida or Cuba by mid-week.