Forecasters Grapple with Inaccurate Intensification Models

Hurricane Beryl showed the inaccuracies of the intensification models used by meteorologists to determine the strength of tropical systems. Hurricane Beryl rapidly intensified and it maintained its strength as a major hurricane for days leading up to its landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula, contrary to what was being forecasted in several instances. Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon addressed these inaccuracies this morning.

 

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist, NMS

“Indeed I have always indicated that we have low confidence or not as much confidence in terms of intensity forecast cause we already know that the rapid intensification of these systems is something our forecast models have difficulty with and that has been for sometime and it has not changed much. There have been some improvements but there is still challenges so if in regard to your question about lessons learnt, that lesson has been learnt from long before. Whenever there is a hurricane coming our way and it is forecasted to be a category one, I always indicate that it could be a category two or three at landfall because we know these things tend to intensify especially when it moves over our area with very warm water, so we need to look out for that. In terms of wind shear if there is very strong wind shear there is nothing much that can, in terms of counteracting. It all depends on which is stronger. If the wind shear is strong it is going to disrupt the hurricane no matter what and that is just the scientific aspect of it.”