Consumer Confidence Index Rises to 44.9 in June 2024

The Statistical Institute of Belize (SIB) has released its latest set of statistics, including the national Consumer Confidence Index (CCI).

According to the SIB, CCI for June 2024 rose to 44.9, reflecting a 1.2 percent increase from May’s 44.4. This uptick marks a recovery from the previous dip in April and resumes the gradual upward trend in consumer confidence observed throughout the year.

Components of Consumer Confidence

The CCI, which ranges from 0 (completely pessimistic) to 100 (completely optimistic), provides insights into consumers’ views on the economy, their financial situation, and major household purchases. The June increase was primarily driven by a 3.5 percent rise in the ‘Expectations’ sub-index, which climbed from 52.9 in May to 54.7 in June, indicating greater optimism about future economic conditions and household finances.

The ‘Present’ sub-index saw a marginal increase of 0.1 percent, moving from 42.1 to 42.2. However, this gain was slightly offset by a 0.6 percent drop in the ‘Durable Goods’ sub-index, which fell from 38.1 to 37.8, reflecting growing consumer caution regarding major purchases.

Regional Variations in Consumer Sentiment

Urban consumer confidence dropped by 5.4 percent, from 43.2 in May to 40.9 in June. This decline was driven by a significant 26.1 percent fall in the ‘Durable Goods’ sub-index, from 40.7 to 30.1. Despite some positive sentiments about present conditions and future expectations, urban consumers were markedly more pessimistic about making significant purchases.

In contrast, rural consumer confidence rose by 6.5 percent, from 45.3 to 48.2. The rural increase was largely fueled by a substantial 22.9 percent jump in the ‘Durable Goods’ component, from 36.0 in May to 44.2 in June.

Gender-Based Confidence Shifts

Male consumer confidence improved by 4.3 percent, from 46.0 in May to 47.9 in June, driven by a notable 28.1 percent rise in the ‘Durable Goods’ sub-index, from 34.4 to 44.0. This positive shift overshadowed a decrease in male sentiment regarding present conditions and future expectations.

Conversely, female consumer confidence fell by 1.8 percent, from 42.9 in May to 42.1 in June. This decline was primarily due to a significant drop in the ‘Durable Goods’ sub-index, from 41.5 to 32.0, although there was a 9.5 percent increase in the ‘Expectations’ sub-index, from 49.8 to 54.5, indicating improved optimism about the future.

Age and Ethnicity Insights

Individuals aged 55 and older saw the largest improvement in consumer sentiment, with the CCI for this group rising from 39.2 to 44.7. This demographic reported positive shifts across all components of consumer confidence.

However, young adults aged 18-24 experienced a significant decline in sentiment, with their CCI dropping by 15.9 percent, from 58.1 in May to 48.9 in June. This age group reported reduced confidence across all three sub-indices.

Among ethnic groups, those classified within the ‘Other’ category saw the highest confidence increase of 24.9 percent, from 37.3 in May to 46.6 in June. Mestizo/Hispanic confidence rose by 4.4 percent, from 42.7 to 44.6, with notable improvements in all sub-indices. Creole consumer sentiment grew by 2.3 percent, from 44.4 to 45.4, driven by increases in the ‘Expectations’ and ‘Present’ sub-indices.

In contrast, the Maya and Garifuna populations saw decreases in consumer confidence of 11 percent and 8.9 percent, respectively, reflecting declines in perceptions of present conditions and future expectations.