BREAKING: BEL Wants GOB to Declare Power Generation Emergency 

Belize Electricity Limited (BEL) has requested that the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) seek government approval to declare a power generation emergency as the country faces an impending shortfall in capacity.

In a letter dated November 8, 2024, BEL CEO John Mencias tells PUC Chairman Dean Molina that “as Single Buyer in the electricity market, hereby gives notice to the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) of an anticipated material shortfall in generation services pursuant to Section 19 of the Public Utilities Commission (Request for Proposals) Regulations, 2024.

Section 19 of the regulations stipulates that “the Commission, with the approval of the Government, shall declare that an emergency situation has arisen beyond the reasonable control of Belize if, in relation to generation services, the single buyer provides notice to the Commission that there will arise, within a period of twelve months, a material shortfall in generation services.”

BEL projects that peak electricity demand in the next 12 months will exceed available generation, necessitating the procurement of additional services.

BEL attributes this issue to a “systemic failure” in securing new generation capacity, compounded by ongoing drought and heatwaves that have reduced supply from Mexico’s federal power company, CFE. BEL also warns that future curtailments from Mexico may increase, citing recent dispatch shortfalls from CFE.

According to the document, rapid economic growth in the Yucatán Peninsula, including Mexico’s popular tourist destinations, has led to a significant rise in energy demand, similar to trends observed in Belize. Combined with climate change and delays in bringing new generation sources online in both countries, these factors are making it increasingly difficult to meet growing energy demands.

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Considering the uncertain post-pandemic recovery of demand, the ongoing growth of Belize’s economy, and warmer climatic conditions driving up cooling needs and transmission losses, BEL projects a base case grid peak demand of 139.8 MW in June 2025. This forecasted peak includes the Caye Caulker load, anticipated to be connected to the grid by late April 2025.

BEL anticipates continued capacity challenges from its foreign supplier, CFE, throughout the dry and warmer months of 2025. As seen in 2024, CFE’s supply to Belize is expected to fall below the contracted 55 MW, with projected averages of 22 MW, 7 MW, 8 MW, and 34 MW for May through August 2025, respectively. BEL’s concerns stem from ongoing delays in generation expansion in the Yucatán Peninsula and congestion along the transmission route from Valladolid, which supplies BEL’s interconnection.

BEL is requesting that the PUC secure government approval by November 15, 2024, to declare a power generation emergency, which would enable the procurement of additional generation services.