NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.

A summary infographic showing hurricane season probability and numbers of named storms predicted from NOAA’s 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook. (Image credit: NOAA)

“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D. “AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”

“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks. “Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”

A summary graphic showing an alphabetical list of the 2024 Atlantic tropical cyclone names as selected by the World Meteorological Organization. The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is June 1 and runs through November 30. (Image credit: NOAA)

As one of the strongest El Ninos ever observed nears its end, NOAA scientists predict a quick transition to La Nina conditions, which are conducive to Atlantic hurricane activity because La Nina tends to lessen wind shear in the tropics. At the same time, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea creates more energy to fuel storm development. 

This hurricane season also features the potential for an above-normal west African monsoon, which can produce African easterly waves that seed some of the strongest and longer-lived Atlantic storms. Finally, light trade winds allow hurricanes to grow in strength without the disruption of strong wind shear, and also minimize ocean cooling. Human-caused climate change is warming our ocean globally and in the Atlantic basin, and melting ice on land, leading to sea level rise, which increases the risk of storm surge. Sea level rise represents a clear human influence on the damage potential from a given hurricane.

9 Dead, 121 Injured in Stage Collapse in Mexico

A stage collapse caused by strong winds at a campaign rally in San Pedro Garza García, Mexico, resulted in nine deaths and 121 injuries. Candidate Jorge Álvarez Máynez was present but uninjured. Governor Samuel García Sepúlveda pledged to cover funeral and hospital costs for the victims, including a minor who died.

The incident, which happened on Wednesday was captured on video, showed a sudden gust causing the stage to fall, injuring many. Videos shared on social media showed the moment a strong gust caused the stage to collapse. Álvarez Máynez and his team can be seen running for cover as the structure, which included a large video screen, falls onto the stage and part of the audience area. Footage taken in the aftermath of the accident shows a large number of emergency vehicles at the scene, their lights flashing in the darkness, as injured people are carried away. The area was cordoned off and guarded by heavily armed security personnel.

Álvarez Máynez has suspended his campaign to focus on the victims.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador expressed condolences and urged an investigation. The accident occurred amid preparations for Mexico’s largest election on June 2, marked by significant political violence, with 28 candidates attacked and 16 killed this year. The presidential race features two leading female candidates, Claudia Sheinbaum and Xochitl Gálvez.

Italian Teenager Set to Become First Millennial Saint

Pope Francis has attributed a second miracle to Carlo Acutis, moving him closer to canonization, the Vatican announced on Thursday.

Carlo Acutis, often referred to as the patron saint of the internet among Roman Catholics, passed away from leukaemia at the age of 15 in 2006. Known for his computer skills, Carlo used the internet to share his faith.

After his death, Antonia Acutis received messages from people worldwide claiming medical miracles, such as cures for infertility and cancer, after praying to Carlo. 

Carlo’s path to sainthood began in 2020, when the Diocese of Assisi petitioned the Vatican. In February of that year, Pope Francis attributed the healing of a boy with a malformed pancreas to Carlo, marking his beatification. For canonization, a second miracle was required.

The second recognised miracle involves a woman from Costa Rica named Liliana, who prayed at Carlo’s tomb in Assisi on July 8, 2022. Liliana’s daughter Valeria had suffered severe head trauma from a bicycle accident in Florence on July 2. She required critical brain surgery with a low survival chance. Liliana’s secretary began praying to Blessed Carlo, and Liliana herself made a pilgrimage to Carlo’s tomb. That same day, Valeria began breathing spontaneously, followed by improvements in movement and speech. A CAT scan on July 18 showed the haemorrhage had disappeared, and Valeria was moved to rehabilitation on August 11. On September 2, Liliana and Valeria returned to Assisi to thank Blessed Carlo.

Generations of Change: Climate Perspectives and Justice in Belize

Our Earth has witnessed generations coming and going. Although the lifestyles between generations vary greatly, we all face a common threat: climate change. Each generation has its own perspective on climate change and its ideas about what should be done to achieve climate justice. These ideas range from the simple change in weather patterns to more profound impacts.

I had the opportunity to interview different generations of Belizeans and foreign nationals living in Belize to gain an understanding of how climate change has impacted their lives, their understandings of climate justice, and their recommendations for fostering climate justice within the Belizean community. The meaning of climate change also varies from person to person. Some might think of climate change as merely a change in weather patterns. Others, such as Dr. Kasthuri Henry, see climate change as “the effect of the cancer known as humankind on our Earth.”

A common denominator among these generations is the threat climate change poses to different aspects of their lives. Each interviewee—a high school student, a parent and market vendor, a community empowerment advocate in their 50s, and an elderly person—all see significant changes in weather patterns and increased heat.

The rising temperatures in Belize are nothing new. Dorothy Jean Wade, a resident of Corozal, stated during her interview that over her eighty-nine years of life in Belize, she has seen how the country has become drier. She specifically noted that in the late weeks of May and early June, which she remembers as being rainy in her youth, there is now a lack of rain.

She directly links this to the decreased abundance of crops in Belize. As the daughter of a farmer, she remembers her house being filled to the ceiling with fruit. However, in recent years, she has seen trees in the surrounding villages of Corozal withering away due to lack of rain. The lack of rain and rising heat, she believes, contribute to rising crop prices. Her biggest concern is not just the heat but also the impact that the high cost of fruits and vegetables has on the younger generation. With increased prices, crops become less accessible to the public, which in turn impacts the nutrition of children in families.

Corozal Farmer’s Market Source: Corozal Live

Today’s youth have similar concerns about their future. J.W., a high school student at Sacred Heart College, expressed serious concerns about her future. Her concerns stem from the fact that she has no idea what climate justice is, which she sees as an injustice. Her understanding of climate change is the changing weather patterns that affect the Earth’s inhabitants.

As our climate is changing, so should our people and our education systems. Youths wish for more climate-related topics to be included in their curriculum. In Belize, students are among the most affected by the heat waves over the past weeks. Due to poor infrastructural design of buildings, students at Sacred Heart College are pursuing their education in classrooms that can be compared to ovens.

This has affected students’ health both physically and mentally, causing rashes, anxiety, and increased stress. Students are so focused on finding ways to cope with the heat that they cannot concentrate on their lessons. In addition, due to the unbearable heat, teachers are often forced to give free periods, which delays students’ education. Both teachers and students are frustrated by the heat, which strains student-teacher interactions.

Sacred Heart College Classrooms

J.W. is concerned about how this hindrance to their education will affect their future career opportunities. Adaptation strategies need to be implemented nationwide to ensure that students receive the education they deserve. Most importantly, she encourages students to speak up about their right to an education in a comfortable setting. We should voice our concerns and work on solutions together.

Of course, as a society, it is no single nation’s fault or one person’s duty to combat the effects of climate change on crops and education. Dr. Henry touches on the topic of taking accountability and responsibility toward the environment. We must all consider ourselves caretakers of the Earth. Dr. Henry works in rural communities, teaching children about gardening, pickling, bottling, and integrating these skills into family life. She believes in promoting a connection with nature and understanding its wealth through hands-on learning and sustainability practices.

Recycling plastic to make Christmas ornaments – an initiative with Dr. Kasthuri Henry, the Ministry of Sustainable Development, Climate Change and Disaster Risk Management and Minister Orlando Habet’s Team.

The term “climate justice” exists because we have been using resources unjustly. To move toward a more equal society, we need to break the cycles of neglect that have been placed on our environment, with an emphasis on teaching youth, supporting teachers, and empowering creative problem solvers. Apart from showing up, we must be consistent and persevere when faced with resistance.

Emotional Intelligence – Summer Youth Leadership Camp at St. Ignatius High School

The perspectives on climate change and climate justice from various generations in Belize underscore the urgent need for collective action and education. It is evident that climate change is not just an environmental issue but a social and economic one that impacts food security, health and education. By fostering a deeper connection with nature, promoting sustainable practice and integrating climate education into our curricula we can empower the next generation to take informed and effective action. Together, we can create a more just and sustainable future for Belize and beyond.

by Anwar Wade

This story was published with the support of the Caribbean Climate Justice Journalism Fellowship, which is a joint venture of Climate Tracker and Open Society Foundations.

Elderly Woman Still Missing 

The search continues for Alicia Jacome of La Gracia, Cayo. The elderly woman reportedly went missing on Friday afternoon while everyone was asleep. 

The chairman of Buena Vista Village said, “I sent a team from Spanish Lookout with 3 drones, and they couldn’t find any leads.” It has now been four days since Jacome went missing. 

The chairman has asked the Belize Defence Force for assistance. She was last seen near Clifford Sabala Farm, located in the La Gracia area, at around 12:30 p.m. on Friday. 

One person close to the family posed on social media. “So far, the search has been going on and no sign of her. We are asking volunteers to go do a search to find the person.” 

If you have any information that can help locate Jacome, you are asked to call 6336024 or the nearest police station. 

One Dead in Traffic Accident 

One person was killed following a road traffic accident on Tuesday night in Santa Elena Town. 

The victim has been identified as twenty-one-year-old Jaylen Flowers, a resident of Unitedville Village. Flowers reportedly lost control of his Meilun motorcycle near La Loma Luz Boulevard. He sustained severe head and body injuries. 

The incident occurred at around nine o’clock. 

Businessman Shot During Robbery 

Businessman Dake Yu was shot during a robbery at 61 Supermarket in San Ignacio Town. 

Shots were heard in the Santiago Juan Layout area. Witnesses say that two armed men barged into the store and held Yu and employees at gunpoint. According to reports, Yu was shot once. 

The robbers escaped on a motorcycle. 

Police are investigating. 

Devain Flores Charged with Cruelty to a Child 

Thirty-three-year-old Devain Flores was charged with two counts of cruelty to a child. The Neals Penn Road resident is expected to return to court later today. Flores was charged after a video of him physically abusing a male child was posted on social media. He was initially charged with common assault. 

The shocking footage shows the individual slapping, kicking, and punching the infant multiple times on two separate occasions.

The Commissioner of Police, Chester Williams, addressed the viral video when he appeared on Open Your Eyes on Tuesday. He said that further measures would have been taken against the individual if the police had obtained the video before he was brought to court. 

Op-ed: Protecting Biodiversity for a Better Environment

By Hivy Ortiz Chour, Better Environment Officer. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), for Latin America and the Caribbean. 

Biodiversity is essential for life on our planet. Despite the technological advances of today’s world, human beings will always depend on healthy ecosystems for water, food, medicine, clothing, fuel, shelter, and energy, among other essential elements.

Healthy ecosystems are critical for maintaining agricultural, forestry, aquaculture, livestock, and food production systems, combating climate change, reducing the risk of pandemics, and protecting livelihoods. Failure to protect biodiversity, especially when agricultural practices that ignore the natural environment are promoted, puts our well-being and future at risk.

Hivy Ortiz Chour, Better Environment Officer. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), for Latin America and the Caribbean. 

This year’s celebration of International Biodiversity Day calls on us to “Be part of the plan” and seeks to motivate governments, indigenous peoples, local communities, NGOs, legislators, businesses, and citizens to actively collaborate in implementing the Biodiversity Plan approved at COP15, sharing their contributions and committing to the cause. Everyone has an essential role to play and can contribute to the plan’s success.

The Convention on Biological Diversity has mandated the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) to integrate biodiversity use and conservation criteria into production systems. This means agricultural systems must be analyzed in an integrated manner, considering soil, water, living organisms, biological corridors, and pollinators. All of these are essential for achieving efficient production systems that generate well-being for communities.

A fisher at work in the River Tista in Panjarbhanga, Bangladesh

FAO must ensure these aspects, and the ministers of agriculture at the last Regional Conference, the main governing body of the Organization in Latin America and the Caribbean, stressed the importance of promoting more sustainable and resilient agriculture.

This issue will undoubtedly be central to the COP16 on Biodiversity, which will begin on October 21 in Cali, Colombia. At the event, the 196 participating countries must commit to the 23 targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Framework, signed two years ago in Canada, to restore ecosystems.

FAO promotes a solid work agenda of sustainable production practices in various regions. In Brazil, the REDESER project promotes sustainable agroforestry management to conserve biodiversity and improve local livelihoods. In Chile, the +Bosques project focuses on restoring native biodiversity, reducing emissions, and recovering landscapes. In Guatemala, forested land is being reclaimed, and natural forests are being managed.

In Honduras, progress is being made in creating a biological corridor connecting protected areas, facilitating wildlife movement, and promoting conservation. With FAO support in Paraguay, the Ava Guarani indigenous people are planting yerba mate trees to preserve their tradition and protect the environment.

key aim of the FAO-GEF project was revitalising the milpa farming system, giving farmers a sense of recognition for their production. Left/top: © Ivan Lowenberg.

In Peru, FAO is leading projects for sustainable management and restoration of dry forests on the northern coast and initiatives in the Amazon forests. In Venezuela, the project Conservation and the sustainable use of biological diversity in the Caroni River basin seeks to strengthen capacities for the sustainable use of the landscape.

FAO also promotes technical cooperation in protected areas and the creation of networks to address common challenges in the region, such as forest health and invasive species, among other initiatives.

Preserving, restoring, and sustainably using biodiversity is a monumental task that requires the commitment of all sectors: governments, civil society, and the private sector must work together to ensure a sustainable future for our planet.

It is time to move from agreement to action to ensure a healthier and more prosperous world for future generations. A Better Environment is key to Better Production, Better Nutrition, and Better Life, leaving no one behind.

BREAKING: Deadly Cattle Disease Detected in Cayo 

A deadly cattle disease has been detected in the Cayo District. A release from the Belize Agricultural Health Authority (BAHA) says that anaplasmosis, an infectious disease that is transmitted primarily by ticks and the re-use of blood-contaminated equipment such as needles, has been detected. 

“We are aware of cattle mortality in the Cayo District and that we have been actively monitoring and supporting the farmers in the affected areas.” 

The disease can affect cattle of all ages, with increased severity in poorly nourished, pregnant, nursing, or older animals. The risk of infection is higher when noninfected cattle are mixed with infected ones and when conditions favour biting flies and ticks.

Symptoms of anaplasmosis include weakness, weight loss, increased aggression, difficulty breathing, abortion, and anaemia, which may cause yellowing or paleness of the mucous membranes and thin, watery blood.

The situation in western Belize is currently contained and under active surveillance, not constituting an animal health emergency at this time.

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