Why the Population Numbers are Lower than Projected

The population census that the Statistical Institute of Belize released earlier this year indicated far lower numbers than what was actually projected before the data collection event took place. Today Diana Trejo explained what could be the factors that have affected the actual numbers.

 

Diana Trejo, Director General, S.I.B.

“With respect to the population statistics, I know that this is a particularly touchy one because our previous estimates were much higher than where the census, um, showed us to be in actuality, but we do believe that what we are publishing now is much improved from what was estimated prior. Um, it is well in line with what we see in terms of, um, data from the Ministry of Education in terms of their intake and, and, um, cohort sizes. Year over year, the Ministry of Education has seen that. Um, the intake is, is shrinking, or at least the growth in their intake is slowing down. It also corresponds with what we see from the Ministry of Health. I believe just earlier this week there was a report that the number of births for last year was the lowest ever recorded. This is right in line with what we are seeing with the slowdown in terms of population growth. One of the things that we definitely saw was a reduction in the size of our migrant, not migrant population or foreign-born population. Um, and I do think it’s very possible that a part of this can be because when the pandemic struck, um, persons left the country, persons who are here, perhaps working, left the country and, you know, they didn’t return subsequently or they didn’t return by the time we did the census.”

 

Reporter

“Can you talk about the fact that the towns and villages will soon get new borders? Um, how, how does that affect the statistics?”

 

Diana Trejo

“We recently published our village or community level population counts from the centers. And the reason why this came out so far after the main findings, um, was precisely because we wanted to establish or agree upon a set of working boundaries for each of these communities um, with the relevant government agencies so that when we allocate households to a particular boundary, um, we are all speaking about the same community.”