Three Potential Tropical Systems Being Monitored by the National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently monitoring three areas for potential tropical development: one in the Caribbean Sea and two systems in the central and eastern Atlantic.

It’s been two weeks since Hurricane Ernesto, the last named storm, moved through the Atlantic basin. The next storm to form will be named Francine.

Potential Development in the Caribbean and Gulf: A tropical wave, an area of disturbed weather, is currently located in the central Caribbean Sea, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves westward. Tropical development is possible later this week in the northwest Caribbean Sea before it reaches Belize or Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, or next weekend if the system enters the southwest Gulf of Mexico. At that point, conditions could become more favorable for the formation of a tropical depression or storm.

Currently, stable air is inhibiting the system’s ability to develop and sustain organized thunderstorms. In the short to medium term, the system could still bring heavy rain and gusty winds to Jamaica, Central America, and Mexico, regardless of whether it develops further. It is uncertain whether this system will pose any threat to the continental United States.

Potential Impact on the Cabo Verde Islands: The Cabo Verde Islands could experience rain and gusty winds from one of these systems in the next day or two.

Second System in the Central Atlantic: Another system is located in the central Atlantic Ocean, with the potential for slow development before conditions become unfavorable later this week. This system currently poses no threat to any land areas.

Seasonal Trends: The areas of potential tropical development are typical for this time of year, as September is the peak month of the Atlantic hurricane season. During this period, the Atlantic has the broadest range of possible tropical system formation throughout the six-month hurricane season.