In today’s briefing, Chief Hydrologist Tennielle Hendy provided an update on the ongoing flooding across Belize, with warnings still in effect for several rivers.
“We do have a flood warning still in effect for the Rio Hondo, Makal, Maupan, and Belize rivers,” Hendy confirmed. “Some of the roads in the north are still impassable.”
While some regions have seen improvements, such as a decrease in flood levels in Region 7, Hendy stated that other areas remain at risk. “In Region 9, we have the Mopan and the Belize rivers still at bankfull or flood stage,” she said, adding, “the spillways at the tree dam facilities are still active.”
Hendy added: “A departure from the flood forecast issued yesterday is that we’re now seeing that the Saboon River is exhibiting increasing above-normal levels for the remainder of the country.”
She warned that conditions could change rapidly with rainfall. “We expect that with rainfall, the situation will change,” she said. “These are models… they are based on a living, moving, breathing environment, and it can change.”
Regarding flash flooding, Hendy explained the current soil moisture levels, which are moderate but could lead to increased risk. Regarding Tropical Depression Nineteen, she stated that it is expected to bring up to 10 inches of rain over the next five days. She warned, “If you receive additional rainfall, we can see the extent widening in these areas,” and advised the public to continue monitoring the weather from reliable sources.
During a press briefing this morning, Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon addressed the potential impacts of Tropical Depression Nineteen, which is currently located in the western Caribbean. According to Gordon, there’s a less than 20% probability of tropical storm-force winds reaching Belize within the next five days, though this could increase as the system intensifies. “That low probability doesn’t rule it out entirely,” he explained, “but for now, based on the forecast, it’s low.”
Gordon shared satellite imagery showing that the system, though disorganised, is becoming better structured, with banding features forming near the Gulf of Honduras. As of the latest update, the system is moving west at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and a central pressure of 1004 mb. It is approximately 391 miles east-southeast of Belize City, with a projected arrival in Belize’s vicinity within 27 hours if it maintained its speed. However, the system is forecast to slow down and potentially stall north of Honduras for 24 to 36 hours before shifting northwest.
Gordon pointed out that while models offer different scenarios, each one predicts significant rainfall for Belize, with some areas potentially seeing more than 10 inches by Monday. While the American model shows the system weakening due to land interaction, the European model suggests it could intensify slightly as it stalls near the Honduran coast.
Gordon noted that residents should stay updated as forecasts may shift. Regardless of its final intensity, the system is likely to bring widespread heavy rainfall, and there’s a significant chance of a tropical storm impacting Belize late Sunday into Monday.
Gordon reminded residents that models have inherent inaccuracies and assumptions, adding, “No forecast can be precise. There is a high probability of landfall in Belize, but focus less on exact timing—rainfall could precede the storm’s arrival.”
Azerbaijan had planned to unveil its flagship initiative—the Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF)—on COP29’s ‘finance day’. However, the controversial climate fund is on hold, while progress on the climate finance talks remains slow. The CFAF’s objective is to raise at least $1 billion primarily to support clean energy projects, energy efficiency, and climate resilience in developing nations that rely on voluntary contributions from fossil fuel-producing nations and companies from developed nations.
COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev had previously described the fund as a “significant step” for communities looking for action, not just words. However, when the time came, the fund was noticeably absent from the agenda. A high-profile event to launch the CFAF was cancelled, and the initiative was placed on the backburner.
Azerbaijan’s chief negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, explained that a working group had been formed to refine the concept and ensure it was acceptable to potential donor countries. “It’s a very complex process to establish a new fund,” Rafiyev said.
The decision to delay the CFAF was reportedly due to ongoing tensions over the post-2025 climate finance goal (NCQG). Developing countries were allegedly wary that contributing to Azerbaijan’s fund could set a precedent for them to also contribute to the NCQG.
Environmental groups have largely welcomed the postponement, with Andreas Sieber from 350.org calling the fund a “distraction” and “greenwashing.” “Putting money into a fund while expanding fossil fuels is like pretending to put out a fire while feeding it more fuel,” Sieber said.
Azerbaijan was also expected to announce a new climate action plan (NDC) at COP29, but it has not yet done so.
Finance Talks Stall as Deadline Approaches
Progress on COP29’s key outcome—the post-2025 climate finance goal—remains sluggish. Negotiators arrived in Baku with a nine-page draft text, but after discussions, it was expanded to 34 pages. On Wednesday, the co-chairs attempted to shorten it again, but they ended up only reducing it by one page.
Negotiators are expected to continue discussions behind closed doors on crucial issues like transparency, reporting, and how to ensure climate finance actually reaches those who need it.
Top economists recently released a UN-backed report calling for a massive increase in climate finance, urging advanced economies to triple their existing commitment from $100 billion to $300 billion per year by 2030. The report also stressed the importance of private sector and multilateral development bank support, along with greater cooperation between developing nations.
Campaigners at COP29 are rallying behind Colombia’s call for a global treaty on the mining of critical minerals needed for the energy transition, such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. These minerals are crucial for clean energy technologies but have often been linked to human rights abuses and environmental damage.
Suneeta Kaimal, CEO of the Natural Resource Governance Institute, argued that voluntary standards have not been enough and a binding agreement is needed to ensure traceability from mining to recycling.
Zimbabwe’s president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, also spoke out, warning against repeating past mistakes where resource-rich countries remain trapped in poverty while others reap the benefits. Mnangagwa brought up the need for more investment in Africa’s mineral industries rather than just exporting raw materials for processing abroad.
Calls for a fairer, more sustainable approach to critical mineral extraction are growing at this year’s COP. Several world leaders stand against making the mistakes of the past and ensure that the benefits of the energy transition are shared more equitably.
1. Heavy rainfall is expected to bring severe, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across parts of Central America through early next week, especially in Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
2. Tropical storm conditions are forecasted along portions of northern Honduras and the Bay Islands, where warnings are in effect.
3. The system is projected to approach Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula by early next week, with a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas are advised to stay updated on the forecast.
4. The potential impact on the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, remains uncertain for the middle of next week. Residents in these regions should monitor forecast updates closely.
Tropical Depression Nineteen, poised to become Tropical Storm Sara, is advancing through the western Caribbean Sea and is expected to bring a potentially catastrophic flood threat to Central America over the coming days. Currently located over 200 miles east-southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, the depression has sustained winds of 35 mph and is moving westward at 14 mph.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued along the Central American coast, with conditions expected within 36 to 48 hours. The system is forecasted to strengthen in the Caribbean’s warm waters, although land interaction near Honduras, Belize, and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula could limit its intensity.
Regardless of Sara’s ultimate strength, the storm’s anticipated slow movement across the region is expected to bring torrential rainfall and widespread flash flooding. Northern Honduras could experience up to 30 inches of rain, while Belize, Nicaragua, and surrounding areas may see up to 15 inches, increasing the risk of mudslides and severe flooding.
Tropical Depression 19 has formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and is forecasted to become Tropical Storm Sara soon. The system is expected to move westward and stall near Honduras before heading northward next week.
The National Hurricane Center issued an early morning advisory warning that Tropical Depression Nineteen poses a severe flooding threat to parts of Central America, especially Honduras. The storm, located approximately 250 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, and about 90 miles northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua-Honduras border, is expected to bring torrential rains and life-threatening flash flooding to the region over the weekend.
Moving west at 15 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph, the depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today if it remains over water.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras and from Punta Castilla to the Honduras-Nicaragua border, indicating that hurricane conditions could develop within the next 48 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in place for the same areas, with conditions expected within 36 hours, while a Tropical Storm Watch extends from the Honduras-Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas.
Rainfall totals could reach 10 to 20 inches in northern Honduras, with isolated areas expecting up to 30 inches. These intense rains are predicted to cause widespread, potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, particularly near the Sierra La Esperanza. Other areas, including Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, may see rainfall between 5 to 10 inches, with some locations receiving up to 15 inches, also heightening the risk of flash floods and landslides.
Residents in the affected areas are advised to closely monitor updates and prepare for significant impacts, as the system is likely to linger near Honduras’ northern coast through the weekend, bringing destructive waves and potentially raising water levels by up to three feet along the immediate coastline.
