Tropical Storm Sara formed in the Caribbean on Thursday, with sustained winds of 40 mph and a westward movement at 12 mph. The storm, which became Tropical Storm Sara from Potential Tropical Cyclone 19, is expected to slow down near Honduras by Friday, stalling near Central America through the weekend. This will bring heavy rainfall and the risk of dangerous flash flooding across Central America.
Sara’s path is forecast to take it toward the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, potentially affecting parts of the Gulf Coast. The storm’s winds have strengthened, and it may continue to intensify if it remains over water. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the northern coast of Honduras and the Bay Islands, with Tropical Storm Watches in place for parts of Nicaragua. Residents in affected areas should monitor updates from local meteorological services.
Rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts up to 30 inches, are expected over northern Honduras, leading to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, particularly in the Sierra La Esperanza region. Other areas, including Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, may see 5 to 10 inches of rain, with localised totals up to 15 inches. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas, and storm surge may raise water levels along Honduras’ northern coast by 1 to 3 feet, accompanied by large waves.
In today’s briefing, Chief Hydrologist Tennielle Hendy provided an update on the ongoing flooding across Belize, with warnings still in effect for several rivers.
“We do have a flood warning still in effect for the Rio Hondo, Makal, Maupan, and Belize rivers,” Hendy confirmed. “Some of the roads in the north are still impassable.”
While some regions have seen improvements, such as a decrease in flood levels in Region 7, Hendy stated that other areas remain at risk. “In Region 9, we have the Mopan and the Belize rivers still at bankfull or flood stage,” she said, adding, “the spillways at the tree dam facilities are still active.”
Hendy added: “A departure from the flood forecast issued yesterday is that we’re now seeing that the Saboon River is exhibiting increasing above-normal levels for the remainder of the country.”
She warned that conditions could change rapidly with rainfall. “We expect that with rainfall, the situation will change,” she said. “These are models… they are based on a living, moving, breathing environment, and it can change.”
Regarding flash flooding, Hendy explained the current soil moisture levels, which are moderate but could lead to increased risk. Regarding Tropical Depression Nineteen, she stated that it is expected to bring up to 10 inches of rain over the next five days. She warned, “If you receive additional rainfall, we can see the extent widening in these areas,” and advised the public to continue monitoring the weather from reliable sources.
During a press briefing this morning, Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon addressed the potential impacts of Tropical Depression Nineteen, which is currently located in the western Caribbean. According to Gordon, there’s a less than 20% probability of tropical storm-force winds reaching Belize within the next five days, though this could increase as the system intensifies. “That low probability doesn’t rule it out entirely,” he explained, “but for now, based on the forecast, it’s low.”
Gordon shared satellite imagery showing that the system, though disorganised, is becoming better structured, with banding features forming near the Gulf of Honduras. As of the latest update, the system is moving west at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph and a central pressure of 1004 mb. It is approximately 391 miles east-southeast of Belize City, with a projected arrival in Belize’s vicinity within 27 hours if it maintained its speed. However, the system is forecast to slow down and potentially stall north of Honduras for 24 to 36 hours before shifting northwest.
Gordon pointed out that while models offer different scenarios, each one predicts significant rainfall for Belize, with some areas potentially seeing more than 10 inches by Monday. While the American model shows the system weakening due to land interaction, the European model suggests it could intensify slightly as it stalls near the Honduran coast.
Gordon noted that residents should stay updated as forecasts may shift. Regardless of its final intensity, the system is likely to bring widespread heavy rainfall, and there’s a significant chance of a tropical storm impacting Belize late Sunday into Monday.
Gordon reminded residents that models have inherent inaccuracies and assumptions, adding, “No forecast can be precise. There is a high probability of landfall in Belize, but focus less on exact timing—rainfall could precede the storm’s arrival.”
Azerbaijan had planned to unveil its flagship initiative—the Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF)—on COP29’s ‘finance day’. However, the controversial climate fund is on hold, while progress on the climate finance talks remains slow. The CFAF’s objective is to raise at least $1 billion primarily to support clean energy projects, energy efficiency, and climate resilience in developing nations that rely on voluntary contributions from fossil fuel-producing nations and companies from developed nations.
COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev had previously described the fund as a “significant step” for communities looking for action, not just words. However, when the time came, the fund was noticeably absent from the agenda. A high-profile event to launch the CFAF was cancelled, and the initiative was placed on the backburner.
Azerbaijan’s chief negotiator, Yalchin Rafiyev, explained that a working group had been formed to refine the concept and ensure it was acceptable to potential donor countries. “It’s a very complex process to establish a new fund,” Rafiyev said.
The decision to delay the CFAF was reportedly due to ongoing tensions over the post-2025 climate finance goal (NCQG). Developing countries were allegedly wary that contributing to Azerbaijan’s fund could set a precedent for them to also contribute to the NCQG.
Environmental groups have largely welcomed the postponement, with Andreas Sieber from 350.org calling the fund a “distraction” and “greenwashing.” “Putting money into a fund while expanding fossil fuels is like pretending to put out a fire while feeding it more fuel,” Sieber said.
Azerbaijan was also expected to announce a new climate action plan (NDC) at COP29, but it has not yet done so.
Finance Talks Stall as Deadline Approaches
Progress on COP29’s key outcome—the post-2025 climate finance goal—remains sluggish. Negotiators arrived in Baku with a nine-page draft text, but after discussions, it was expanded to 34 pages. On Wednesday, the co-chairs attempted to shorten it again, but they ended up only reducing it by one page.
Negotiators are expected to continue discussions behind closed doors on crucial issues like transparency, reporting, and how to ensure climate finance actually reaches those who need it.
Top economists recently released a UN-backed report calling for a massive increase in climate finance, urging advanced economies to triple their existing commitment from $100 billion to $300 billion per year by 2030. The report also stressed the importance of private sector and multilateral development bank support, along with greater cooperation between developing nations.
Campaigners at COP29 are rallying behind Colombia’s call for a global treaty on the mining of critical minerals needed for the energy transition, such as lithium, cobalt, and nickel. These minerals are crucial for clean energy technologies but have often been linked to human rights abuses and environmental damage.
Suneeta Kaimal, CEO of the Natural Resource Governance Institute, argued that voluntary standards have not been enough and a binding agreement is needed to ensure traceability from mining to recycling.
Zimbabwe’s president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, also spoke out, warning against repeating past mistakes where resource-rich countries remain trapped in poverty while others reap the benefits. Mnangagwa brought up the need for more investment in Africa’s mineral industries rather than just exporting raw materials for processing abroad.
Calls for a fairer, more sustainable approach to critical mineral extraction are growing at this year’s COP. Several world leaders stand against making the mistakes of the past and ensure that the benefits of the energy transition are shared more equitably.
1. Heavy rainfall is expected to bring severe, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across parts of Central America through early next week, especially in Honduras, Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua.
2. Tropical storm conditions are forecasted along portions of northern Honduras and the Bay Islands, where warnings are in effect.
3. The system is projected to approach Belize and Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula by early next week, with a risk of strong winds. Residents in these areas are advised to stay updated on the forecast.
4. The potential impact on the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, remains uncertain for the middle of next week. Residents in these regions should monitor forecast updates closely.
Tropical Depression Nineteen, poised to become Tropical Storm Sara, is advancing through the western Caribbean Sea and is expected to bring a potentially catastrophic flood threat to Central America over the coming days. Currently located over 200 miles east-southeast of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, the depression has sustained winds of 35 mph and is moving westward at 14 mph.
Tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued along the Central American coast, with conditions expected within 36 to 48 hours. The system is forecasted to strengthen in the Caribbean’s warm waters, although land interaction near Honduras, Belize, and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula could limit its intensity.
Regardless of Sara’s ultimate strength, the storm’s anticipated slow movement across the region is expected to bring torrential rainfall and widespread flash flooding. Northern Honduras could experience up to 30 inches of rain, while Belize, Nicaragua, and surrounding areas may see up to 15 inches, increasing the risk of mudslides and severe flooding.
Tropical Depression 19 has formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea and is forecasted to become Tropical Storm Sara soon. The system is expected to move westward and stall near Honduras before heading northward next week.
The National Hurricane Center issued an early morning advisory warning that Tropical Depression Nineteen poses a severe flooding threat to parts of Central America, especially Honduras. The storm, located approximately 250 miles east of Isla Guanaja, Honduras, and about 90 miles northeast of Cabo Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua-Honduras border, is expected to bring torrential rains and life-threatening flash flooding to the region over the weekend.
Moving west at 15 mph with sustained winds of 35 mph, the depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm later today if it remains over water.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Bay Islands of Honduras and from Punta Castilla to the Honduras-Nicaragua border, indicating that hurricane conditions could develop within the next 48 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings are also in place for the same areas, with conditions expected within 36 hours, while a Tropical Storm Watch extends from the Honduras-Nicaragua border to Puerto Cabezas.
Rainfall totals could reach 10 to 20 inches in northern Honduras, with isolated areas expecting up to 30 inches. These intense rains are predicted to cause widespread, potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides, particularly near the Sierra La Esperanza. Other areas, including Belize, El Salvador, eastern Guatemala, and western Nicaragua, may see rainfall between 5 to 10 inches, with some locations receiving up to 15 inches, also heightening the risk of flash floods and landslides.
Residents in the affected areas are advised to closely monitor updates and prepare for significant impacts, as the system is likely to linger near Honduras’ northern coast through the weekend, bringing destructive waves and potentially raising water levels by up to three feet along the immediate coastline.
Accused triple murderer, forty-year-old Elmer Nah, was back in court today. Nah is charged with the execution-style murders of three members of the Ramnarace family in Belmopan during a horrific shooting in December 2022. A trial date still hasn’t been set because certain orders from the presiding judge, Justice Nigel Pilgrim, haven’t been followed. So, today was more of a housekeeping session. Nah appeared virtually, represented by Senior Counsel Godfrey Smith. At the last hearing, which is still in the preliminary case management stage, Justice Pilgrim ordered all parties to file their applications by November first. However, the prosecution has not complied. In court, Smith listed several items he requested from the crown but hasn’t received, including Nah’s cellphone, a headlight, flashlight, an SD card, a body cam, and video footage from the night of the murders. When Justice Pilgrim asked the prosecution why these items weren’t accessible, they initially said they were still being investigated. The defense also wants access to an interview given to the media by the Commissioner of Police, but the crown claimed they didn’t understand what the ComPol meant in his statement. Justice Pilgrim emphasized that the crown has a duty to provide the court with this information. We spoke with Attorney Smith after the hearing.
Godfrey Smith
Godfrey Smith, Attorney-At-Law
“We are at a very preliminary stage. We are still at the disclosure stage. We are trying to prepare our defense as fully and comprehensively as possible. We have been trying to get a list of crucial matters, access to them, from the crown, the state and not be successful in doing so. You would have heard; the judge say that he was not impressed with the crown explanation. So, he set a further date. He asked by the twenty-ninth of November that these things be provided. So, we look forward to receiving them.”
Tonight, twenty-year-old Paul Smith Junior is free of a murder charge. Smith was accused of the April 2022 murder of nineteen-year-old Tyreak August in La Democracia Village. Today, he learned from Justice Derick Sylvester that the crown is dropping the case against him with a nolle prosequi. Justice Sylvester asked Smith about his plans at such a young age. He also noted that Smith was a juvenile when he was accused, arrested, and charged for the 2022 murder, and questioned how he will adjust to life after spending over two years on remand at the Belize Central Prison. Smith shared that he plans to join the Belize Defense Force and be a positive role model for his younger sister and support his family. However, Smith also faces two gun-related charges for possessing an unlicensed firearm and ammunition while on bail for the murder. He violated his high court bail conditions, which stated he shouldn’t be arrested and charged with any other offenses while out on bail. Smith’s bail hearing for these charges is set for Friday, and he remains on remand at the Belize Central Prison until he can secure bail for the pending gun and ammunition offenses. We also heard from Smith’s attorney, Ronell Gonzalez.
Ronell Gonzalez
Ronell Gonzalez, Attorney-At-Law
“The judge like other judges I have seen offered guidance to young people thatcome before the court. In this case he offered guidance to young Paul Smith to say that what happens from here in your life is dependent on you. You have the power to make changes from this point. You are now free from this case. What happens is your choice. That is some kind of guidance I have seen come before these courts. Madam Justice Moore does the same kind of guidance. Often times young people get caught up in these offense and they need some kind of guidance moving forward.”
On October thirtieth, the Northern Regional Hospital faced sharp criticism after a public officer accused its emergency team of neglecting his eleven-year-old son’s open gash. Just fourteen days later, the hospital is under fire again. This time, the allegation is that a firefighter died after being denied treatment for a broken leg in a cast. Reports claim he sought help for discomfort but was sent home, only to be rushed back later when his condition worsened. He was then referred to K.H.M.H., where he passed away. However, the hospital denies these claims, calling the social media report inaccurate. Regional Health Manager Feliz Rhaburn told News Five that the patient didn’t have a broken leg but an injury, and was treated and given home care instructions, which apparently weren’t followed.
Felix Rhaburn
Felix Rhaburn, Regional Health Manager, N.R.H.
“We have been made aware that there are certain is supposed circulatingwhereby the alleged father to the individual having a green. They had fever, a broken leg, and I’m not sure where it was in front of . But that’s somewhat very erroneous. The patient had none of the above and patient had other conditions that we need to try to manage here, and we had to escalate it to cage image for further management and unfortunately, the individual passed away. The individual suffered an injury which was not an open wound. So the mere fact that it could have developed into an infection is not really logical. And the individual was being seen and does have a history in regards to the same complaint. The physician indicated certain orders which were not strictly alert to from what we understand. And that resulted in the complication that, resulted in on time in the untimely death. We are not really blaming anyone. We think that the whole situation was unfortunate and it definitely highlights to whereby we need to be more diligent as an institution in regards to giving clear outpatient or at home indications. We only have records of his. Visits here, and we are not really certain of what happened at his home and so forth.”
