The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its official outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, forecasting above-average activity with a 60% chance of an above-normal season. The season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
According to NOAA’s forecast, there will likely be 13 to 19 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph. Of these, 6 to 10 are expected to become hurricanes, and 3 to 5 could strengthen into major hurricanes—Category 3 or higher, with winds exceeding 111 mph. NOAA says it has 70% confidence in these projections.
Several factors are contributing to the heightened activity this year, including warmer-than-average Atlantic Ocean temperatures, weaker wind shear, and a potential northward shift of the West African Monsoon, which often seeds powerful Atlantic storms. NOAA also cited ENSO-neutral conditions and reduced trade winds, which allow storms to intensify more easily.
“As we witnessed last year with significant inland flooding from hurricanes Helene and Debby, the impacts of hurricanes can reach far beyond coastal communities,” noted Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm. “NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property.”