Slightly Above Average Season: 14 Named Storms, 7 Hurricanes, 3 Major Hurricanes

During the virtual session, the National Met Service presented predictions for the 2021 hurricane season.  There are two major factors that determine tropical cyclone development or hurricane activity in the region. Those include sea surface temperatures and the El Niño southern oscillation. Chief Meteorologist Ronald Gordon says that for the sixth consecutive year, a named storm formed before the beginning of the hurricane season. This year, however, there is a low chance of El Niño developing and he speaks about the expectations. 

Ronald Gordon, Chief Meteorologist

“An average season for us is an average over a thirty-year period and that is based on the world meteorological organization convention or their practice. During the last period, from 1981 to 2010, there were twelve named storms as your average season and six hurricanes and of those, three become major hurricanes. Having moved beyond 2020 and now we are in 2021, we are using the new thirty-year period from 1991 to 2020 for which the average now is fourteen named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. As would expect, the averages have increased especially in the named storms category and that is because we have been in a more enhanced period of tropical cyclone activity within the last thirty years. All agencies are forecasting slightly above normal activity compared to the 1991 to 2020 average; they are not forecasting what we saw last year, which was an extreme year for hurricane/tropical cyclone activity. For Belize, what they are saying is that there is a fifty-five percent chance that we could have one or more named storms tracking within fifty miles of Belize this year that is compared to a forty percent probability on average. In terms of hurricanes; that is twenty-seven percent compared to an average of eighteen and in case of major hurricanes, eight percent compared to an average of five.”