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Sep 1, 2020

TS Nana Cometh – Predicted to be a Cat 1 Hurricane to Make Landfall along the Coast of Belize

Tropical Storm Nana cometh and when she arrives, she will be a hurricane; at least that is the prediction coming from the National Hurricane Center.  The storm is expected to become a category one hurricane and is predicted to make landfall somewhere along the coast of Belize. While there has been widespread talk of it being somewhere in the south, the National Met Service is not so quick to pinpoint that area.  The Met says that it will have a better idea of where the storm will make landfall by Wednesday.  A hurricane watch has been declared in light of the fast-moving storm. Deputy Chief Met Officer Ronald Gordon spoke with us this evening to give an update on the storm and what is expected over the next forty-eight hours.

 

Ronald Gordon, Deputy Chief Meteorologist

“Tropical Storm Nana was centered near latitude sixteen point eight degrees north; longitude seventy three degrees west – that is about five hundred and ninety miles east of Belize City. Nana was moving to the west at eighteen miles per hour with maximum sustained winds of fifty-miles per hour. Nana is projected to continue moving west across the North West Caribbean Sea north of Honduras moving to the Gulf of Honduras where it is forecast to become a category one hurricane and then make landfall somewhere on the Belize coastline on Thursday.”

 

Ronald Gordon

Andrea Polanco

“When we say Belize coast line – is there a projected area to know at this time if maybe more south or further north?”

 

Ronald Gordon

“No. The answer to that question is no. The projected cone that you see there is telling us that there is uncertainty on where exactly on the coast it will make landfall. The cone is covering the entire country from north to south, meaning that anybody in that area should be prepared for the possibility of a category one hurricane to make landfall. That is the reason why at the moment, the country is under a tropical storm watch and that watch will likely be upgraded to a hurricane watch later this evening with a tropical storm warning.”

 

Andrea Polanco

“When it makes landfall is it still expected to be a category one or by that time will it be a category two?”

 

Ronald Gordon

“The official forecast is calling for a category one hurricane. I will mention now that numerical models that are used to predict tropical systems have made tremendous improvement in forecasting the track of a system that is where it is going to make landfall. One of the areas where it lags is the intensity – so when we talk about the intensity is how strong the tropical storm or the hurricane will be. That is a bit lower confidence. Therefore, even though the official forecast is calling for a category one hurricane, the public should bear in mind that there could be error in that forecast. It could be lower or be higher. So, we cannot put an exact estimate on that but the important thing is for you to be prepared whether it is a category one or category two hurricanes at the moment.”

 

Andrea Polanco

“Why are people picking out Dangriga – or identifying Dangriga as the area to make landfall?”

 

Ronald Gordon

“I have a high suspicion that is because they are drawing a line along that cone and basically connecting all the dots from where the hurricane center put those things. I have been to the hurricane center and they used to put a line first that they used to draw and they took out that line for the exact reason because people have a habit to think the storm will follow that exact line. And the purpose of having that cone is to tell people there is some uncertainty. We do not know where in the cone the system will make landfall. So, what people are doing in terms of drawing the line along the center of the cone is exactly what we don’t want them to do. We cannot say exactly where the system will make landfall yet,. There is a cone of uncertainty for a reason and that is the reason why we have all those watches from the north to south of country along the entire coast line.”

 

Andrea Polanco

“As of when will the country be experiencing or expect any sort of storm or hurricane conditions?”

 

Ronald Gordon

“Weather conditions will continue fair for tonight most of tomorrow; late tomorrow evening we are going to see bands of showers and thunderstorms approaching the coast by moving inland; gradually throughout the night these bands of showers and thunderstorms will increase in frequency and intensity and early on Thursday morning, wherever the system makes landfall especially north of the center should be experiencing category one hurricane force winds which is between seventy four miles per hour and ninety-four miles per hour winds and storm surge for areas just, just north of the center.”


Viewers please note: This Internet newscast is a verbatim transcript of our evening television newscast. Where speakers use Kriol, we attempt to faithfully reproduce the quotes using a standard spelling system.

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