Tropical Storm Warning Issued for the Northeastern Coast of Mexico

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was about 355 miles (575 km) east-southeast of La Pesca, Mexico. The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west-northwest and west is expected is expected tonight and Wednesday, and the system is likely to approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by Wednesday. It has a high (80 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and the next 7 days.

The disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) to the northeast of the center.

RAINFALL: Potential Tropical Cyclone One is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across northeast Mexico into South Texas, with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. This rainfall will likely produce flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain across northeast Mexico.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…