2024 - Channel 5 Belize

2024 Election Analysis: UDP’s Chances Revealed Through Survey and Models

The survey was conducted by Vikings Strategies LLC.

This analysis covers election data in Belize from 1998 through 2020, highlighting voting patterns and trends across constituencies. For each constituency, these were examined:

Historical Voting Trends – A review of past election results.

2020 Election Results – Analysis of the winning party and voting margins.

UDP’s Current Potential – Based on the Belize 2024 Survey, the United Democratic Party (UDP) is projected to secure 42%-44% of the national vote, slightly improving from 37% in 2020.

Probability and Regression Models – We applied statistical models (linear, non-linear, Huber regression, and probability analysis) to estimate each constituency’s likelihood of leaning toward the UDP or People’s United Party (PUP). These models classify constituencies as Safe UDP, Likely UDP, Lean UDP, Toss-up, Lean PUP, Likely PUP, or Safe PUP, depending on current polling.

Explanation of Models

1. Linear Model
This model assumes a consistent relationship between the national vote share and local results. For instance, in Cayo North, if the UDP wins 50% nationally, the model predicts 50.8% in that constituency. However, it may oversimplify real-world dynamics where local factors differ from national trends.

2. Non-Linear Model
This model captures more complex relationships where changes in national vote share don’t lead to proportional changes locally. In Cayo North, a national vote share increase from 50% to 52.5% may lead to a disproportionate local rise from 47.2% to 53.4%, showing that national performance can have outsized effects in certain constituencies.

3. Huber Regression Model

The Huber model adjusts for outliers (e.g., unique candidate popularity, local scandals) and is robust in cases where local results deviate from national trends. For Cayo North, if the UDP receives 50% nationally, the Huber model predicts 50.9% locally, accounting for local dynamics while controlling for extreme deviations.

4. Probability Analysis
This model estimates the likelihood of the UDP winning a constituency based on polling and past results. For instance, the UDP needs at least 49.9% of the national vote for a 50% chance of winning Cayo North. Currently, with national support between 42% and 44%, the UDP’s chance of winning the area is around 40.2% to 41.6%.

UDP’s Prospects in the 2024 Elections

Viking Strategies’ annual Belize Survey reveals shifting political dynamics. The 2024 survey, with a sample size of 968 and a ±3.21% margin of error, highlights key challenges for both the UDP and PUP.

– Definite Support: 9% of voters strongly back the UDP, with 38% open to the party. Comparatively, 18% of voters are firmly behind the PUP, with an additional 40% considering them.
– Potential National Support**: The UDP’s support is projected between 41.6% and 43.7%, suggesting they are competitive but still face challenges.

Survey Data and Modeling Application

Using survey data and Huber models, the analysis projects potential election outcomes. With the UDP polling between 42% and 44%:

– At 42% national support, the UDP is expected to win 5 seats, with 4 additional seats in contention.
– At 44% support, they may secure 6 seats, with competitive odds in 8 more constituencies.

Constituency-Level Analysis

This section includes detailed narratives and graphs for each constituency, using Huber regression and probability models to assess the likelihood of the UDP securing victories. All data is sourced from the Belizean Elections and Boundaries Commission.

SSB to Loan Caribbean Tires $7 Million?

The Social Security Board has issued a public notice of investment in the newspapers. The SSB is proposing to lend Caribbean Tires Wholesale Limited $7 million. It says the loan is intended for capital expenditure and cash flow replacement. It will have a term of 15 years and an annual interest rate of 6.5% payable in monthly installments.

Members of the public have 10 business days, from Friday, September 13, to submit any feedback on the proposal. Comments can be sent via email to info@socialsecurity.org.bz or mailed to P.O. Box 18, Belmopan, Cayo.

Herbal Healing and Ancestral Knowledge in Focus at Belize Conference

The Second International Conference on Traditional Healing kicked off in the Cayo District today. It brought together traditional healers, complementary medicine practitioners, and medical doctors for a three-day event. The forum serves as a platform to showcase the richness of ancestral healing practices while engaging in discussions on preserving these traditions for future generations.

Hugo Carillo, Director of U Chan Muul Yaax K’aax, highlighted the importance of bridging the gap between traditional healers and modern medical professionals. “We have traditional healers, who are the keepers, and we have medical doctors and nurses. We have to see both sides,” Carillo explained. He added that there are rich traditional beliefs of the Yucatec Maya culture and shared the importance of passing this knowledge down to younger generations, especially in the face of challenges like climate change and deforestation.

The conference is supported by the National Institute of Culture and History (NICH). Rolando Cocom, Director of the Institute for Social and Cultural Research (ISCR), stressed the importance of collaboration between traditional and certified medical practitioners. “It is an important conversation because, as we know, most Belizeans in some way or another at some point in their life. The Belizean people would have used herbs, for instance, to treat an ailment or to treat a disease,” Cocom said. He advocated for a partnership between formal healthcare systems and traditional practices, seeing them as complementary.

General physician Danny Yacob also weighed in on the balance between traditional and modern medicine, saying, “We don’t only focus on the scientific and the medical part. We always try to include the herbal part of it. Because medicine as a whole is a holistic approach. It’s an approach centred not just on medication, but you also have to teach the patients what they have to eat.”

The event features a range of topics, including at-home healing methods, healthy dieting practices, and herbal approaches to mental health. Dr. Maria Lucia Goncalves, a committee member, emphasised that traditional teachings must be researched and integrated into modern medicine. “Everybody has a traditional medication home. You have the abuelita, the grandmother, grandfather, and natural healers who tell the neighbours who give you some medication. Sometimes we take a different approach,” she explained.

Israel Targets Hezbollah Leader in Beirut Airstrikes

The Israeli military has announced that it conducted strikes against Hezbollah targets throughout southern and deep Lebanon, focusing on launchers and facilities used for storing weapons. These operations aim to “degrade and dismantle” Hezbollah’s infrastructure and capabilities.

On Friday, Israel specifically targeted the group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, during strikes on Beirut, according to an Israeli official speaking to CNN. However, there has been no confirmation from Hezbollah regarding Nasrallah’s status. A senior Israeli official commented that it is “too early to say” whether the strike was successful, noting that intelligence gathering could take time, referencing the weeks it took to confirm the death of Hamas leader Mohammed Deif in Gaza earlier this summer.

The decision to target Nasrallah was described as a “very tough call,” with the official indicating that confirmation may arrive at any moment, depending on the intelligence available. A Lebanese security official, when asked about Nasrallah’s condition following the airstrikes, simply stated, “We wait.”

U.S. President Joe Biden has expressed that he is awaiting further information before commenting on the Israeli airstrikes in Beirut, emphasizing that the U.S. was not involved in the operation. “We’re still gathering information…the United States had no knowledge of or participation in the IDF action,” Biden stated to reporters in Delaware.

Reports suggest that Israel informed the United States of the operation only after it was underway, with U.S. officials indicating that they had no prior knowledge of the action. An Israeli official confirmed that the notification was sent shortly before the strike, affirming that the U.S. did not play a role in the operation.

When questioned about the justification for the strikes targeting Nasrallah, Biden refrained from offering an opinion, stating, “We have to get more detail…I don’t know enough to answer that question.” He expressed ongoing concern about the potential for escalating tensions in the region.

The UK’s Foreign Office has urged British nationals in Lebanon to leave at the earliest opportunity. In a statement, the Foreign Office advised Britons to take the next flight available and said that efforts were underway to increase capacity.

Enhancing regional preparedness for banana fusarium wilt in the Caribbean

Bananas are crucial to the economies of many Caribbean countries, providing income for smallholder farmers and contributing significantly to export revenues. However, the threat posed by fusarium wilt, particularly the Tropical Race 4 (Foc TR4) strain, is a challenge that the countries need to confront with urgency and collaboration.

While the disease has not yet been reported in the Caribbean, experts advise the countries to adopt a multi-dimensional approach to control and manage this threat through prevention, early detection, and contingency planning.

“Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Caribbean are particularly vulnerable to external shocks and climate-related changes including exacerbation and proliferation of plant pathogenic diseases like Foc TR4,” said Jean Baptiste Kemuel, Chief of Extension and Rural Advisory Services at Saint Lucia’s Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Physical Planning, Natural Resources and Co-operatives.

With the support of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) in partnership with the Caribbean Plant Health Directors Forum (CPHD), using the farmer field school (FFS) approach, technical staff, extension workers, and other stakeholders were trained to prepare for a potential Foc TR4 incursion in the Caribbean.

Participants came from 10 Caribbean countries: Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent, Suriname, and Trinidad and Tobago.

“Through this training, we are equipping countries need to conduct surveillance and monitoring, analyze risks, and enforce strict phytosanitary measures to prevent the introduction of the pathogen and contain it swiftly in case of any incursion,” explained Maged Elkahky, FAO’s plant pathologist in his keynote address. He added that strengthened interregional collaboration is equally crucial for efficiently preventing and managing Foc TR4 in the region.

Unlike other plant diseases that can be managed with pesticides or cultivation practices, TR4 is particularly insidious. Once it invades the soil, it can persist for decades, banning banana production and devastating farmers’ livelihoods.

Why bananas matter

Bananas are an economic lifeline for many communities in the Caribbean and Latin America where over 28 percent of the world’s bananas are grown. In 2022, the region’s production volume of bananas and plantains  reached over 40 million metric tons.

The latest research, best practices, and innovative solutions were shared during the weeklong training to combat this devastating disease.

“Bananas and plantains are not only important for income generation but also for nutrition security in the Caribbean. TR4 is already present in South America and Caribbean countries must work hard and together to increase preparedness focusing on prevention, biosecurity measures, early diagnostic and contingency. This is the first workshop on TR4 focused on Farmer Field School approach and the participants are now better prepared and will share knowledge in the respective countries”, stated Melvin Media, FAO’s Plant Production and Protection Officer.

Ivan Ayuso Pleads Guilty to Embezzling Over $1 Million from Government

Ivan Ayuso, a former senior accounts clerk at the Belize Sports Council, has pleaded guilty to stealing more than one million dollars from the government. Ayuso received a sentence indication of up to five years, which prompted his guilty plea.

The charges followed revelations brought out in an audit report of the Sport Council’s finances. A former attorney for Ayuso had said publicly following the charges that Ayuso was responsible for preparing checks, for which he was not authorised to sign. In January of 2021, Ayuso was granted bail in the sum of three hundred thousand dollars. Ayuso was also charged back in 2002 with arson in connection with the fire that destroyed the Paslow Building. He was acquitted of the charge.

The matter is before High Court Judge Nigel Pilgrim.

PUP Maintains Dominance as UDP Faces Challenges Ahead of 2025 Polls

The political landscape of Belize is currently characterised by a strong dominance of the People’s United Party (PUP), with various constituencies reflecting a significant shift in voter preferences. This is what a recently published poll by Viking Strategies LLC, which provides clients worldwide with customised sovereign political risk and public affairs solutions, shows.

The findings point out that traditionally UDP strongholds like Caribbean Shores and Pickstock have turned in favour of the PUP, highlighting a potential seismic change in political allegiances. The PUP’s grip is further solidified by overwhelming support in constituencies such as Lake Independence, where they captured an impressive 89.4% of the vote in 2020. Meanwhile, the UDP’s prospects appear bleak, especially in urban areas where the margins have narrowed. However, the analysis indicates that several competitive toss-up seats, like Albert and Belize Rural North, remain within reach for the UDP, contingent upon improvements in their national polling. As the political dynamics evolve, the upcoming elections could present pivotal opportunities for both parties.

Key Findings:

Constituency Analysis Overview

The analysis of various constituencies reveals significant political trends in Belize, particularly regarding the stronghold of the People’s United Party (PUP) and the challenges faced by the United Democratic Party (UDP).

Caribbean Shores has seen a notable shift since the UDP held the seat in 2008 and 2012; it flipped to the PUP in 2015 and was retained by them in 2020. Kareem Musa of the PUP won with 58.9% of the vote in 2020, and projections suggest that unless the UDP improves local support significantly, this seat is likely to remain in PUP hands.

In Pickstock, traditionally a UDP stronghold, the PUP candidate Anthony Robert Mahler secured 78.3% of the vote in 2020. Given the UDP’s low chance of reclaiming this seat, it is rated as a safe PUP seat.

Fort George is another long-standing PUP seat, where Henry Charles Usher continued the trend with a comfortable win of 63.8% in 2020, making it a safe PUP seat as well. Albert has been more competitive, with the UDP narrowly winning by 50.2% to 48.6% in 2020, categorised as a toss-up that could shift based on national polling improvements.

Queen’s Square remains a strong UDP area, with the party winning 55.6% of the vote in 2020, suggesting it is a safe seat for the UDP. Similarly, Mesopotamia retains UDP support with 53.1% of the vote, but tighter margins could emerge depending on national polling.

Lake Independence saw overwhelming PUP support with 89.4% of the vote in 2020, firmly categorising it as a safe PUP seat. In Collet, the UDP secured 60.4% of the vote, remaining the favourite here, though challenges could arise with shifts in national polling.

In Port Loyola, the PUP took the seat with 57.7% in 2020, indicating a lean PUP rating, while Freetown has shown increasing margins for the PUP, suggesting it is likely to remain a PUP seat unless significant changes occur.

Belize Rural North has swung between the PUP and UDP, with Marconi Leal of the PUP winning 57.3% in 2020, positioning it as a competitive toss-up for the next election. Conversely, in Belize Rural South, although the UDP has historical strength, the PUP’s Andre Perez narrowly won with 63.0% in 2020, leaning the seat slightly toward the PUP. Belize Rural Central remains competitive, with the PUP’s Dolores Balderamos Garcia winning 57.2% of the vote, making it a toss-up.

In Orange Walk East, the PUP secured 54.3% of the vote, indicating it remains a stronghold for the party. Similarly, Orange Walk North saw the PUP’s Ramon Cervantes win with 56.1%, suggesting that unless the UDP improves its position significantly, this seat is likely to stay with the PUP.

Cayo North has fluctuated between the parties, but the PUP’s Michael Chebat won with 56.1% in 2020, indicating lean PUP status. In contrast, Cayo South has been a consistent PUP seat, with Julius Espat winning 77.4% of the vote in 2020, securing it as a safe PUP seat. In Cayo West, the UDP retained the seat by a narrow margin of 50.6%, making it likely to remain with the UDP. Cayo North East, however, saw the PUP’s Orlando Habet win with 62.9%, leaning the seat toward the PUP. In 2020, Alex Balona of the PUP garnered 55.2% of the voters. This seat is leaning for the

Belmopan has been a competitive battleground, with the PUP winning 60.1% in 2020, suggesting it could go either way in the next election.

In Corozal Bay, the PUP’s Elvia Vega-Samos won with 53.7%, indicating a strong PUP position, while Corozal North remains competitive, with the UDP’s Hugo Patt holding the seat by 56.5%. Corozal South East and Corozal South West are both rated as safe and leaning PUP, respectively, following their wins in 2020.

In Stann Creek West, Rodwell Ferguson has maintained a stronghold for the PUP with 63.3% in 2020, indicating it is a safe seat. Similarly, Dangriga has leaned toward the PUP, with Louis “Dr. Zab” Zabaneh winning 61.7% in 2020, making it likely to remain with the PUP. Both Toledo East and Toledo West have shown consistent PUP support, with victories of 61.1% and 61.3%, respectively, confirming their safe PUP status.

The report finds that the UDP is expected to improve its 2020 performance. It also indicates that a majority of constituencies remain strongholds for the PUP. The probability analysis shows that, although the UDP could narrow margins in several areas, flipping heavily PUP-leaning constituencies is unlikely. However, competitive seats, particularly in urban areas, may shift depending on the dynamics of the upcoming campaign and voter turnout levels. If the UDP can raise its national polling to the 42%-44% range, it might secure 6 to 7 seats, with a few more leaning in its direction. With a closer performance to 44%, the UDP could potentially gain an additional 2 to 3 toss-up seats, totalling between 10 and 13 seats. Conversely, falling below 40% could lead to the UDP retaining only the five seats they currently hold or losing further down to 3 or 4 seats after the elections.

Belize City Man Fears for Life After Police Raid

A Belize City resident says he is living in fear after allegedly being targeted during a raid on his property on Monday night. He says that while at his home on Matura Street, he stepped outside to use the bathroom in a separate building when he heard footsteps nearby. Moments later, he was confronted by a group of police officers dressed in dark clothing. Fearing for his life, he surrendered, showing he was unarmed. However, he claims that despite his compliance, he was shot multiple times with rubber bullets and then taken to the police station. He says that the incident has left him traumatised, and he worries for the safety of his newborn child.

The man told News 5, “I came out to use the bathroom and heard people running through the yard. When I stepped back towards my family’s house, I ran straight into a gunman. As he saw me, he shot at me. I ran for my life. I have a newborn. I ran and I ran for my life, and they shot two more shots. I surrendered, and when I surrendered, they shot me.”

The incident reportedly happened at around midnight.

The resident is now seeking legal action, saying, “Yes, I’m looking to file a report. I just came from the hospital, and I plan to return to the station to make my case.”

Dame Maggie Smith Passes Away at 89

Maggie Smith, the legendary actress beloved for her roles as Professor McGonagall in the Harry Potter films and the sharp-tongued Dowager Countess in Downton Abbey, has died at the age of 89. Her sons, Chris Larkin and Toby Stephens, confirmed her passing in a heartfelt statement, sharing that she died peacefully in the hospital surrounded by loved ones.

In a career spanning nearly seven decades, Dame Maggie Smith garnered critical acclaim and adoration for her performances on both stage and screen. She won two Academy Awards, for The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie (1969) and California Suite (1978), and earned countless other honours, including four Emmys for her work in Downton Abbey. Smith’s remarkable wit, commanding presence, and versatility cemented her status as one of the greatest British actors of all time.

Born in Essex in 1934, Smith’s acting journey began with Shakespeare’s Twelfth Night in 1952. She became a fixture of British theatre, with notable performances at the Old Vic and the National Theatre, where she collaborated with Laurence Olivier. Her breakthrough came in 1969 with The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie, a role that showcased her depth and sharpness, followed by decades of iconic roles in both mystery films and historical dramas.

While widely known for her role in the Harry Potter franchise, which she humorously referred to as her “pension,” Smith’s work on Downton Abbey introduced her to a new generation, with her portrayal of the Dowager Countess becoming a fan favorite. She continued acting into her later years, appearing in films like The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and The Lady in the Van.

Smith leaves behind an enduring legacy as one of the most distinguished and beloved figures in the world of acting, as well as a devoted family. The industry and her fans mourn the loss of an extraordinary talent.

Official Jerseys for Belize’s 2024 Delegation Unveiled

The official jerseys for Belize’s high school athletes participating in the XXI CODICADER Games were unveiled during a brief press conference at the Marion Jones Sports Complex.

The upcoming XXI CODICADER Games will take place from October 2nd to 11th, 2024, in El Salvador. It will bring together student athletes from Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, and Panama. One of the aims is to promote friendship and competition under the Central American Integration System (SICA).

Sports Minister Rodwell Ferguson says the importance of youth development through sports and expressed confidence in the Belizean athletes, wishing them success on the international stage. He also noted how sports foster unity, resilience, and camaraderie among young competitors across Central America.