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Feb 14, 2013

Varying figures for 2013’s economic growth

The Belize Central Bank has issued the latest economic update.  A perusal of the document shows inconsistent figures with previous projections from other official sources.  The most important forecasted growth is the Gross Domestic Product, (GDP). The Central Bank points out that in 2013; economic growth is expected to be two point seven percent, just above the country’s long term average of two point five percent.  However, the last IMF report on November fifteenth, 2012 projects an estimated growth of three point five to four percent. Weeks later, the Government revised its figures upwards.  In the Prime Minister’s New Year’s address, he projected an upward economic expansion of seven percent which is the figure the unions used in arguing for a salary adjustment. This is an additional three point five percent in revenues or an additional forty million in the government coffers. According to the Prime Minister’s New Year’s address, the seven percent would have exceeded all expectations including the IMF projection of three point five percent.   The Central Bank forecast of two point seven percent is therefore not in line with the IMF or the governments figures. There is another point to note. According to the Central Bank report, the growth forecast of two point seven, stems from loss in economic activity in manufacturing, agriculture, tourism, oil, and construction activity. This contradicts the previous glowing analysis of the sectors in the Prime Minister’s New Year’s message. This afternoon we asked the Central Bank of Belize to explain the discrepancy between the two point seven percent stated today and the seven percent stated in the Prime Minister’s speech.  They referred us to the Statistical Institute of Belize, but SIB referred us back to Central Bank.

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5 Responses for “Varying figures for 2013’s economic growth”

  1. Storm says:

    Figures don’t lie, but liars can figure. This is all witchcraft — 7% annual growth?

    I’d love to see a reputable outside organization analyze our economy and gives its best evaluation. When we deal with phony numbers, we risk further devastating our economy and our children’s future.

  2. EZ Deh. says:

    How come we don’t have any comments here, is it that we are so appalled that we are in awe and speechless. Nothing and no one in Gov’t has any credibility left. Clearly we are all dumb and stupid and they can tell us anything they want and we just listen. The reality is that this adminsitration lies, LIE AND LIES TO US CONSISTENTLY. We need to demand an explanation now people. So they take us for ‘cunumunu’ and have us going around in circles. Can’t you see the Central Bank was just given an executive order to downgrade growth so as to justify to teachers that they have no pay coming? 7% was only a silly PM’s speech but who can argue with the Central Bank, right? Well none of them can be trusted, none. It’s high time to demand that we band together for a better system of gov’t.

  3. Bear says:

    EZ Deh, I agree we need to band together for change, but it will not come without actual revolution, whether peaceful or violent. The political parties are both up to their necks in criminal deals, and they will not let us have honest government without a fight. And some blood will surely be spilled when that fight takes place. Will it be tomorrow? Next year? I don’t know, but I’m sure the day must come.

  4. Jay says:

    I cant believe people still referring to that new years speech…..isnt the electricity rate increase enough to not believe that speech?

  5. Glenford Ysaguirre says:

    Here are the real facts:

    thttp://www.centralbank.org.bz/docs/cbb_7.0_new_advisories/cbb-responds-to-local-newscast-(14-feb-2013).pdf?sfvrsn=2he facts:

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