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Aug 27, 2012

Possible default in September

Glen Ysaguirre

It is very unlikely that the negotiations will wrap up before the September nineteenth deadline; so what happens if the country defaults on the Superbond? While there is a small window after the deadline to engage bondholders, Ysaguirre says the consequences would include further downgrading of the sovereign credit rating and Belize might be branded as “haad pay”. The debt review team, however, is optimistic that once the necessary credit relief is achieved, those effects can be reversed.

 

Glen Ysaguirre, Governor, Central Bank of Belize

“One immediate consequence I guess which most of the analysts out there and experts are making noise about is the fact that we would probably be further downgraded to maybe junk bond status but that’s a part of the process that we expect should happen if we are not able to resolve something. The consequence of that; well it would mean that you are totally locked out from accessing the international market for investment capital but the reality is that we have been locked out of that market since 2007. The expectation was that you’d work your way back towards the market. so that would be a short term consequence but the thing is that once you can negotiate and come up with a new deal and put yourself back in good standing with the creditors by the exchange then you will be able to start restoring your credit capacity. I mean immediately after the negotiation you will start to see an adjustment in terms of the credit rating because the credit rating because the credit rating actually deals with your current situation and your ability to sustain your payment. So once you get the relief you want, you will then be able to indicate to the credit rating agencies now I am on a sustainable debt path, you need to revisit my rating. There will be some residual reputational issue of course with these types of restructuring; you know a country has defaulted, it’s on its second restructuring, but it is something that we feel is justified and we can explain and with time we will be able to overcome this.”

 

The government team is also expecting that the private sector will grow the economy.

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7 Responses for “Possible default in September”

  1. Storm says:

    Please don’t insult our intelligence. PUP got us into a deep hole, and UDP has thrown away the ladder to get out. Default is NOT a winning strategy to improve the situation today or for the next two generations of Belizeans.

    There is no magic to money. You have to take in more than you spend, and borrowing is a bad risk. “Neither a borrower nor a lender be.”

  2. marsebo says:

    Belizeans let me tell you:

    the grand theif and begger Dean Barrow is the happiest begger ever, becouse he has a law firm, all his family and his brother is lawyer, the money will be taken from poor Belizeans to pay for his own law firm to fight the case of super bond.

    The dog ,Dean Barrow is stealing your money by not paying the super bond, and paying his law firm instead.,

    Belizean wake up , kik the dog Dean Barrow out,

  3. cayobway says:

    if they expect the private sector to grow the economy, then for” god sake” ease up on overtaxing them.

  4. Jeeboo says:

    I am just sitting and watching another Belizean that’s forced to pay. I think over 50% of people lending money from individuals in this country are hard pay. It comes as no surprise that the leadership (any leadership) is the same. The concept of people in Belize is borrow more from the ones you already owe. Paying back has never been part of the plan.

  5. Rod says:

    Worse pm .And gov in the history of this great nation if unu no wake up belizeans unu guine over the cliff with the loser barrow put him on a plane to Miami for good eighter that or risk being shot or raped or your children will suffer for years so if unu no got the guts fu do it fu unu self do it fu unu picnic guan barrow guan useless.

  6. A Jew says:

    Possible default? The way things are going it looks like it will be a certain default. Bad for Belize, Bad for Belizeans, Bad fi all a we. Except for the ministers, CEOs, Directors, and High positioned people in public office that are living the good life, traveling out of the country once a month, etc. This is a sad truth.. If they all would cut their salaries in half across the whole country, Belize could certainly pay its debts, however they will resort to taxing the poor, private sector, and real hardworking people of Belize.

  7. Me says:

    I would say lets march on september, lets march but the belmopan and bring government down and lets put all of them to jail if they test positive for ilicit enrichment, surely from corozal pablo marin to barrow, the majorty has doubled their assets bet on that.

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