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Jun 1, 2016

What’s the Outlook for the Hurricane Season?

Dennis Gonguez

The 2016 Hurricane Season official starts today and the outlook on activity for this season points to an average to slightly above average number of systems for the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico region. That’s the message coming out of the National Met Service.  According to Chief Met Officer, Dennis Gonguez, it is forecasted that there will be between four and nine named storms becoming hurricanes; between one and four are projected to become intense hurricanes. News Five spoke with Gonguez today, who says that preparedness is important for any eventuality.

 

Dennis Gonguez, Chief Meteorologist

“This year’s season looks to be a bit more active than last year. Last year was relatively quiet and projections for this year in the named systems, we are looking at ten to seventeen named systems; the average is about twelve to thirteen from the period 1981 to 2010.  The forecast for the hurricanes are between four to nine hurricanes to develop; the average is about six hurricanes each year. And then intense hurricane categories three, four and five, the projects are for between one and four and the average is about two intense hurricanes each year. So it looks that if though this system will be more active than last year. The reason for that is that the phenomenon that was influencing last year’s hurricane activity is now weakening and by the end of July or August, the El Nino Phenomenon will be out of the Pacific Ocean. That will no longer exist and therefore we won’t have that sort of dampening effect on our hurricane season so we are heading back to normal this year. The tropical cycles are given by ocean surface temperatures as oppose to land surface temperatures so right now we see that the surface of the Atlantic Ocean is a bit cooler than normal. So that would not encourage development because of the colder sea surface temperatures. But what we are experiencing here, we would believe that it is all over the place, it’s warm like this. However, like I said, the tropical cyclones are driven by ocean surface temperatures as opposed to land surface temperatures. Each hurricane season, the preparedness issue is the most important. We need to be prepared for any eventuality. We need to have our plans in place. Where we are going if there is a threat; what are we taking with us if we are going to a shelter and all that. We need to already have that in place so that we don’t get caught off guard so to speak.”

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